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Conclusion
The methodological framework presented indicates that, because the Turkish economy evolves in a very dynamic context, a broad range of outcomes is possible with regard to the sustainability of the current account.
Under some base-case assumptions regarding the fundamental determinants of the Turkish current account, as of 2007 sustainability is not secured.
Within this scenario, and in the absence of changes in these fundamentals, achievement of sustainability would require a significant depreciation of the RER.
However, under a high-case scenario current account sustainability would be ensured only with a moderate depreciation of the RER.